Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator Sees Notable Increase in June 2026

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator has seen a significant rise, climbing by 7.0 points to reach a value of 37.5 points in June 2026. This increase signals a positive shift in sentiment among economic participants, which is encouraging for the future outlook.

Moreover, the conditions indicator also improved, gaining 5.4 points to a current value of 28.8 points. This suggests that people are feeling more optimistic about the current economic climate.

The anticipations indicator experienced an even more substantial increase, rising by 7.8 points to reach 41.9 points. This reflects a growing confidence in future economic conditions.

Looking ahead, the anticipated inflation rate for July 2027 is estimated at 7.63%. Notably, 65% of participants expect a reduction in inflation rates over the next year, while 25% foresee an increase. Additionally, 80% of respondents anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the coming 12 months.

In terms of real estate, 58% of participants believe that residential property prices will remain stable over the next year, while 26% expect a decline. Interestingly, 75% feel that current property prices are overvalued, indicating a potential market correction ahead.

On the fiscal front, the projected budget deficit for 2026 has increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, with the average forecast for the deficit being 6.4% of GDP. Meanwhile, economic growth expectations for 2026 are modest, at just 0.1%. Furthermore, public debt as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to rise to 63% within the next year.

Participants are also forecasting an average Brent crude oil price of $85 per barrel over the next 12 months, which could influence economic conditions and planning. Overall, these indicators reflect a complex but hopeful economic landscape as Romania navigates its future.