2025 marks record year for global tourism, setting the stage for 2026

In 2025, global tourism achieved remarkable heights, with approximately 1.5 billion international arrivals and estimated tourist expenditures reaching 1.9 trillion dollars. This record year has set a solid foundation for the future, bringing both opportunities and challenges.

As we look ahead to the summer of 2026, the landscape of tourism may change significantly. Demand for tourism in Europe is projected to grow by around 8%, while in Asia, it could rise by approximately 12%. However, these figures come with caution, as a pessimistic scenario may see growth drop to just 3% in Europe and 5% in Asia.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has introduced new pressures on international tourism. Rising aviation fuel prices in Europe, which have surged since the escalation of this conflict, mean that airlines face increasing operational costs—fuel represents between 25% and 30% of these costs.

Air travel remains a vital component of tourism, accounting for about two-thirds of international tourist journeys. Despite the challenges, there are signs that regional travel is becoming more appealing for consumers looking to manage their budgets effectively. Destinations in Southern Europe may benefit from this shift, attracting travelers who previously opted for more distant locations.

Alexandra (Predeanu) Mehedințu, Country Manager Romania at Atradius Crédito y Caución, points out that the issue isn't that planes are no longer flying, but rather that flying has become more expensive. Companies that can swiftly adapt to changes in the tourism market will be better positioned to thrive in this evolving environment.

While the impact of these new realities extends beyond airlines to travel agencies and hotels, there are currently no significant signals indicating a deterioration of credit risk in the tourism sector. The summer of 2026 could very well mark the beginning of a new chapter in global tourism.